Journal of Experimental Agriculture International

Agriculture remains the cornerstone of India’s economy, playing a pivotal role in industrial growth, employment generation and food security. Despite its declining share in GDP, the sector continues to sustain livelihoods for millions while ensuring nutritional stability. The present study was conducted to explore the growth rates, instability in area, production and productivity of rice in India along with the top five producing states. Additionally, to examine the export dynamics of Rice from India, Markov chain analysis was employed. The study was based on secondary data for a period of 10 years, i.e., 2014-15 to 2023-24, from the INDIASTAT and FAOSTAT websites. In this, Compound Annual Growth Rates were also used to calculate the growth rates. The instability in the area, production and productivity was measured with the Cuddy Della Valle Index and Coppock's Instability. The study revealed that the growth rates for India were positive for the area, production and productivity (1.07%, 3.31% and 2.21% respectively). The Cuddy Della Valle instability indices for the study period registered a low instability for area (1.87), production (1.25) and productivity (0.95), respectively. While Telangana state recorded a medium instability for both area (22.79) and production (19.28). Also, the Odisha state reported the highest instability for production (35.75). Coppock's Instability indices also revealed that for Telangana state, the degree of instability for area (66.42) and production (68.38) was higher. The decomposition analysis concluded that the productivity effect was highly responsible for production variability (21.65%) for India. The results revealed that the USA was the most stable market among the major importers of Indian Rice, as reflected by a retention probability of 100%, indicating consistent trade relations and market reliability. The countries like Brazil and Uruguay stood in 2^nd and 3^rd positions with a retention capacity of 44% and 28% respectively. Through Markov chain prediction, it was also concluded that the future exports for the year 2025-26 would be 1592.95, 560.07 and 198.38 thousand tonnes for the U.S.A., Brazil and Uruguay countries, respectively.