Trend Analysis of Tomato Arrivals and Modal Prices at Gudumalkapur Market, Telangana, India
Sai Nikshiptha Gurrapu
*
Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Professor JayaShankar Telangana Agricultural University, Rajendranagar,500030, India.
Meena A
Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Professor JayaShankar Telangana Agricultural University, Rajendranagar,500030, India.
Santhosha Rathod *
ICAR National Institute of Abiotic Stress Management, Baramathi,413133, Maharashtra, India.
Nirmala Bandumula
ICAR National Academy of Agricultural Research Management, Rajendranagar, 500030, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Aim: This study analyzes daily tomato arrivals and modal prices in the Gudumalkapur market, Telangana, from 2019 to 2023 using statistical methods. Tomato prices are highly volatile due to seasonal supply fluctuations and weak market infrastructure, posing challenges to both farmers and consumers. The goal is to understand market trends and support better forecasting and price stabilization for farmers and consumers.
Methodology: This study follows a quantitative research design aimed at analysing long-term trends in daily tomato arrivals and modal prices in the Gudumalkapur market of Telangana, India. The study was conducted in Gudumalkapur market of Telangana, India, using arrivals and modal price data from 2019 to 2023.Daily tomato arrival and modal price data from Gudumalkapur market, Telangana, were analysed using non-parametric techniques like the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis. These methods effectively captured both long- and short-term trends, providing a robust assessment of market stability and price volatility.
Results: The results showed that tomato arrivals exhibited a significant increasing trend, as confirmed by the MMK and ITA, with a Sen’s slope of approximately 0.50 quintals per day. In contrast, modal prices displayed high short-term fluctuations but no significant long-term trend. Descriptive statistics revealed that arrivals were relatively stable (CV: 34.44%), while modal prices were highly volatile (CV: 102.40%). These findings suggest that while tomato supply to the market has improved consistently, price behavior remains unpredictable, likely influenced by external and short-term factors. These insights highlight the need for better market forecasting tools and price stabilization policies to support both farmers and consumers.
Conclusion: The study revealed a significant increasing trend in daily tomato arrivals at the Gudumalkapur market from 2019 to 2023, indicating improved and consistent supply. However, modal prices showed high short-term fluctuations without a clear long-term trend, highlighting persistent market volatility. These findings emphasize the need for effective price forecasting tools and stabilization strategies to support both farmers and consumers.
Keywords: Tomato arrivals, modal prices, trend analysis, Gudumalkapur market, modified Mann-Kendall test, price volatility