Journal of Experimental Agriculture International

The present study undertakes an empirical analysis of Indian soybean meal exports, focusing on challenges and opportunities. India's soybean meal industry has experienced significant growth, driven by the increasing demand from the poultry and livestock sectors. As one of the largest soybean producers globally, India's soybean meal industry plays a crucial role. The study employs statistical tools such as compound growth rates, coefficient of variability, and Markov chain analysis to analyze annual export data from 1993 to 2022.

The results show that between 1993 and 2022, production increased from 2880 to 8000 thousand metric tonnes, and domestic consumption grew from 680 to 6580 thousand metric tonnes. However, exports declined from 2200 to 1700 thousand metric tonnes despite a growth in total supply. The analysis reveals a concerning trend, with imports growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.06% and exports declining at a CAGR of -1.5%. India's soybean meal exports have lost comparative advantage, with RCA values declining significantly since the 1990s. Higher transportation costs have made Indian soybean meal prices less competitive globally, exceeding international and CBOT prices. The Markov chain analysis shows that India's soybean meal exports have exhibited significant fluctuations, with Vietnam and Bangladesh emerging as stable markets. Vietnam has retained 62.44% of its market share in quantity and 55.51% in turnover, while Bangladesh has retained 56.81% of its market share in quantity and 59.65% in turnover.

To regain competitiveness, India needs to address the decline in comparative advantage, improve production efficiency, and reduce costs. Targeted interventions are necessary to revitalize the industry's export performance and enhance its global competitiveness.